Today on NPR's Fresh Air I listened to an interview with Robert Malley (Arab-Isreali affairs expert) in which he explained the complexity of the conflict in Syria and America's reaction to it.
Here is the summary.
The current regime of Assad is very repressive. The oppressed Sunni majority is fighting Assad. Many fighters from around the world are landing in Syria to fight on the side of the oppressed people. Since Assad belongs to the Shiite sect, Shiite countries Iran, Iraq and Lebanon are providing support to Assad. In response to this, Sunnis from around the region and now Al Qaeda and other fundamentalists are congregating in Syria to support their fellow Sunnis. Thus, what started out as a fight between the oppressed and the oppressor is now sectarian - Sunni v/s Shiite.
What should Israel, a neighbor, do? Since Israel's arch enemies Iran and Lebanon are behind Assad, one would think Israel will support the opposiion. But it is self defeating because what comes in place of Assad will be non state actors like Syrian Islamists and terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda. With Egypt, Libya and Tunisia already under the control of Islamists, Israel does not want to support the opposition in Syria. So Israel is tacitly supporting Assad leaving us with the irony of Israel being on the same side as Lebanon and Iran, two countries whose agenda is to not let Israel survive as a nation.
Now comes USA's conundrum.
Should it support the democracy-seeking Syrian opposition? But that means it will be helping a group which has terrorists on its side.
So should it support Assad to prevent Syria from falling into the hands of a group with fundamentalist agenda ?(incidentally its ally Israel is also tacitly supporting him). But that means it will be on the same side as Iran which has an antagonistic relationship with USA.
I think USA has to choose between a rock and a hard place. The republicans would want to go in and eliminate Assad a la Saddam Hussein. Such an action may bring in political mileage in the immediate future. How ever it will only draw USA into a conflict where it has no clear favorites. It will get mired in another never ending civil war.
That may explain why the Obama administration has chosen not to strike against Assad, in spite of the conflict raging for close to 2 years and even after more than 80000 deaths.
1 comment:
Amethyst Fotografix
Compelling listen, this morning. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. What happened to the Ummah, why is it silent?
P D Sathish Chandra
Madhu Krishnamurthy Well conceptualised note good read sir... its better for US to stay away & not get masala in the eye like they had in their other unwanted wars...
Amethyst Fotografix "Summaniraballavaru illave illa" goes a Rajkumar song. America can't keep it's hands off Syria for too long. If it were a Republic administration, the intercourse would have been a done deed by now
4 June at 22:50 via mobile · Unlike · 2
Madhu Krishnamurthy
Thank you P D Sathish Chandra. What you say is 100% true. But The internal political pressures will force US to indulge in some adventurous engagement ( Amethyst Fotografix put it more colorfully :-))
Indira Jayaram
And there's no oil in Syria, for the US
Dwijal Dave
I think that oppression is the real issue here. We, as a free nation should help those oppressed. No one knows what future brings so no need to fear it now. Do what's right and just. Look at what happened with our help in Afghanistan against Russians. History repeating?
Amethyst Fotografix
Are you contradicting yourself in one statement? Look at what we did in Afghanistan, the FIRST TIME, then look what happened, and now look what's happening, and imagine what will happen once we "pull out" in 2014. Tajik Ministers are busy hoarding weapons so they can get ready to fight Taliban and Pashthuns once America is out of the scene.
Dwijal Dave
Was not as much a contradiction as it was a reference to say that we did not think about future then when we helped Taliban win freedom from Russians. We did what was right thing to do then without worrying of consequences.
Amethyst Fotografix
It was not the "Right thing" to do right to the Afghans. We used them.. No, my tax dollars weren't at work then, so lets say America used them to settle scores with USSR. In place of one known entity called USSR, now there is Al Qaeda, Taliban, a zillion other Islamic entities that aren't hesitating to bite the same hands that fed them with arms. Oh yes, the same arms crossed borders and reached Punjab, that was no "Right thingy" Sir, even then
Dwijal Dave
Those are all consequences of an action that you mentioned. You cannot worry about them just help those who are unjustly subjugated to inhumane acts. At least that is what I believe, Sir.
Anup Hosangadi
Actually Israel has to watch out on the other side as well. It cannot afford Hezbollah (who are on their side according to your note) to become empowered in this conflict. A true mess this has become. Give a thought to all those innocent folks losing lives or livelihoods in this conflict.
Madhu Krishnamurthy
Dwijal Dave Now US has the benefit of past experience in Afghanistan. I think US should stay of it bcos we do not know who the good guys are
Madhu Krishnamurthy
Anup Hosangadi Yes the plot thickens with Hezbollah thrown in the mix. Israel wants Assad to be around so that they can say "Stop arming Hezbollah else we will strike at you". They can't do that if there isn't one person they can talk to. (in the event Assad goes there will be many factions in Syria who can cause lot of problems for Israel)
ಶರಶ್ಚಂದ್ರ ಕಲ್ಮನೆ
A year back, I was asked to travel to Syria. I had opposed this travel due to security risks. After a year, nothing has changed except the toll of deaths.
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Aravind Hande
The blame for most of this lies with the criminal Neo-cons (Wolfowitz /Feith / Perle) and Bush / Cheney / Rumsfeld etc. Had they not gone into Iraq and taken down Saddam based on the WMD (and link to 9-11) lies, things may have been far better off. S...See More
below.
Iran outmaneuvers U.S. in the Syrian proxy war warincontext.org
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